John Keeley

Commodity Money (Gold)

Total amount of gold – 163,000 tons (World Gold Council, 2008)
30,000 tons (18%) of this is in the ‘official sector’ such as central banks.
27,000 tons (17%) is in ‘investments’ (i.e. gold hoarded by capitalists).
This implies about 35% of world gold is used for monetary purposes.
20,000 tons (12%) is used for industrial purposes, e.g. electronic circuits.
84,000 tons (51%) is used as jewellery. Much of this can be melted down & turned back into bullion. And so is used as a form of savings.
or 216,500 tonnes (@BullionBrief)

Gold production:
1840 – 15 metric tons (tonnes)
1853 – 224
1887 – 131
1899 – 451
1913 – 712
1922 – 471
1940 – 1,301
1945 – 651
1970 – 1,623
1980 – 1,224
2001 – 2,557
2008 – 2,285
2018 – 3,656
2024 – 3,300

1840-44 – 146 metric tons
1845-49 – 120
1850-54 – 374
1855-59 – 1,011 (590% increase from 1840-44 due to discoveries in California & Australia)
1860-64 – 915 (-9.5%)
1865-69 – 981 (7.2%)
1870-74 – 878 (-10.5%)
1875-79 – 819 (-6.7%)
1880-84 – 764 (-6.7%)
1885-89 – 835 (9.2%)
1890-94 – 1,106 (32.5%)
1895-99 – 1,851 (67.4%)
1900-04 – 2,240 (21%)
1905-09 – 3,154 (40.8%)
1910-14 – 3,340 (5.9%)
1915-19 – 3,150 (-5.7%)
1920-24 – 2,630 (-16.5%)
1925-29 – 3,021 (15%)
1930-34 – 3,730 (23.5%)
1935-39 – 5,387 (44.4%)

$ price of gold:

1834 – $20.67
1933 to 1971 – $35 (about 40% devaluation)
1980 – $875
1999 – $253
2007 – $612
2011 – $1,770
2015-18 around $1,200 for most of the  period
2020 breaching $2,000
2024 $2,500
2025 breaching $3,500

Between 1999 & 2002, the UK (Gordon Brown) sold 395 tonnes of gold at an average price of $275 per ounce, a total of $3.8bn. At $3,000 an ounce, those same reserves would be worth $41.8bn.

Token Money

US$ in circulation $21.6tr (Jan ’25)

British Price Index:
1849 – 86
1873 – 130
1896 – 72
1913 – 100

US Producer Price Index:
1914 – 12.0
1918 – 23.5 (prices double)
1920 – 28.8
1922 – 15.7
1929 – 16.6
1933 – 10.4
1937 – 15.2
1948 – 28.2
1949 – 25.9
1982 – 100

Credit Money

World Debt:

2024: $318tr, 328% of GDP (Institute of International Finance)

The total burden of world debt, private and public, has risen from 160 per cent of national income in 2001 to almost 200 per cent after the crisis struck in 2009 and 215 per cent in 2013.
(source: 16th Geneva Report, International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies)

Debt to GDP:

Japan 252% (2024), 136% (2000)
USA 127%, 56%
France 111%, 59%
UK 106%, 37%
Spain 105%, 58%
(source IMF)

Total world debt: 160% in 2001, 200% in 2009, 215% in 2013
(Private & public debt as a % of national income; source: 16th Geneva Report, International Centre for Monetary and Banking Studies [FT 28/09/14])

Global Liquidity:
1990: 150% of world GDP
2006: almost 400% (mainly from derivatives, 4% in 1990 to 173% in 2006 [$600tr])
2011: 350% (derivatives 130%)

Source: http://thenextrecession.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/debt-matters.pdf

Bank Lending:

Source: http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2013/12/30/faster-growth-in-2014/

2008 Government Intervention:

QE1 (Nov 2008 to Nov 2009) – Fed purchases Treasuries worth $300bn, govt-sponsored mortgages worth $175bn & mortgage backed securities worth $1,250bn = $1,725bn

QE2 (Nov 2010 to June 2011) – Fed purchases $600bn worth of Treasuries

Operation Twist (Sept 2011 to Dec 2012) – Fed sells $667bn worth of short-term Treasuries for long-term ones

QE3 (Sept 2012 to ?) – ?